The Buffalo Bills will play the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC divisional playoff game at the Highmark Stadium this coming Sunday.
The third-seeded Cincinnati Bengals thrashed the Baltimore Ravens 24-17 in their wild-card game, while the second-ranked Buffalo Bills edged the Miami Dolphins 34-31. This time last year, the Buffalo Bills crashed out at this stage of the playoffs.
The hosts hope to go one better this time around at home, with a spot in the AFC Championship Game up for grabs. The Cincinnati Bengals, on the other hand, look to assert themselves as a genuine Super Bowl threat by taking a road win.
Buffalo Bills VS Cincinnati Bengals Betting expert picks
Buffalo Bills VS Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline
Take the Buffalo Bills to win (1.41) outright on the Moneyline.
The Bills are riding an eight-game winning streak heading into this divisional playoff. The hosts are 14-3 for the season and 8-1 at home. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals are going strong on the road. The visitors have bagged four wins in their past five trips to go 6-3 on the road this season, and are the value bet.
Backing the Bills (-245) to win outright on the Moneyline looks too good to pass up. The hosts were strong at the Highmark Stadium last season with a 7-3 record, and have won their last five home games.
Buffalo Bills VS Cincinnati Bengals Spread
Back the Cincinnati Bengals to win (3.05) for the best chance of a payout.
The Buffalo Bills are favored by 5.5 points against the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional playoff betting lines. This leaves the home side as the heavy favorites to win Sunday’s matchup outright. In the last ten matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 8.9 points.
In their most recent games against AFC North opponents, the Bills went 7-6-1 ATS. Their offense managed 20.6 points per game in that stretch, while the defense gave up 21.2 points on average. In their previous ten games, the Buffalo Bills went 4-6 ATS overall and 5-5 ATS in the last ten games at home.
The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games on the road. The visitors are 7-3 ATS from their ten most recent road trips, as well as 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall.
Buffalo Bills VS Cincinnati Bengals Total
Taking the Total over 48.0 (1.91) is the smart pick for this showdown.
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last ten games between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals produced an average of 47.9 points.
In these previous ten matchups, five produced point totals that were higher than expected. Over was the winning pick five times out of seven at the Highmark Stadium.
48.0 points is the current yardstick for Sunday’s matchup.
The over has been a profitable pick in each of the last three Bills games at Highmark Stadium. The Buffalo Bills have seen four of the past five home games going over. In fact, when looking back on their last 10 matches (both at home and away), they are 6-4 in the over and under betting line.
On average, the Bengals have seen 47.6 points go on board during their past ten matches and 49.0 points in their last five contests on the road. The total has gone under four out of five times in their recent matchups against AFC East outfits.
Buffalo Bills VS Cincinnati Bengals Betting trends
- The total points score went over for the Buffalo Bills in their last four games
- Cincinnati Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games away
Buffalo Bills Form
There were no surprises at the Highmark Stadium during the wild-card weekend. With the home crowd behind them, the Buffalo Bills powered their way past the Miami Dolphins 34-31. The win improved their home record to 8-2 going into the divisional round.
Playing at the Highmark Stadium brings out the best in the Bills. They have the fourth-best home offensive record, averaging 32.0 points per game with home-field advantage and 28.8 points for all 17 of their regular season games. Defensively, the hosts have the second-best unit of all 32 teams, allowing just 18.6 points on average and 19.8 points on their own ground.
One year ago, the Buffalo Bills had a heartbreaking loss in the divisional playoffs. This season, they were determined to make it further in the playoffs and are on course to do so. The hosts have enjoyed a 14-3 season and can make the AFC Championship Game with a win in this round.
Cincinnati Bengals Form
A 24-17 wild-card win over the Baltimore Ravens made it nine straight victories for the Cincinnati Bengals. They head to the Highmark Stadium riding a four-game win streak away from home, leaving them 6-3 on the road for this season.
The Bengals rank up in eighth place in the NFL’s offensive rankings, with 26.0 points per game this season and 24.1 points on the road.
On the defensive side of the ball, the visitors have the fifth-best unit in football, allowing just 19.9 points on average and 21.8 points on the road.
Like last year, the Cincinnati Bengals made the playoffs by winning the AFC North title with a 13-4 record. However, as the lower seed for this matchup, they will be on the road this second postseason match, with the prize being a ticket to the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo Bills VS Cincinnati Bengals H2H history
The Buffalo Bills came away with a 21-17 win in their previous encounter with the Cincinnati Bengals at the New Era Field on September 2019. Both teams have failed to claim the upper hand in this series in recent years, having claimed five wins apiece from their previous ten matchups
In their past ten head-to-head games, the Bills pulled off 24.8 points on average per game, whereas Bengals managed 23.1 points per match.