The New England Patriots (6-5) play the Buffalo Bills (8-3) at Gillette Stadium in December 1st in round 13 of NFL. The AFC East race is taking shape ahead of this Week 13 divisional matchup. The New England Patriots hold fourth place in the divisional standings, having gone 6-5 after 11 regular season matches. Sitting second is the Buffalo Bills, who are 8-3 from 11 outings. It’s now getting toward that time of the year when every match counts. For the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills, a victory here could prove to be a game-changer in their respective campaigns.
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Betting lines
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Betting expert picks
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Moneyline
Take the Buffalo Bills (-238) to win on the moneyline. The New England Patriots may have the home-field advantage for this matchup, but recent history in this series is very much not on their side. Instead, we like the look of the Buffalo Bills continuing their dominance in this series, having won four of their last five matchups against the New England Patriots.
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Spread
The Buffalo Bills (-110) open as the 5.5-point road favorites against the New England Patriots, according to the Ohio sports betting sites. This suggests they should win by over one field goal at the very least. In the last 25 matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 13.3 points.
Home-field advantage usually has paid off for the New England Patriots in this series. In their past five encounters with the Buffalo Bills at the Gillette Stadium, the home side bagged three wins by an average winning margin of 13.3 points. The hosts are also 4-3 ATS in the past seven games at home and 6-3 ATS overall from their previous ten games.
The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games. The visitors are 2-4 ATS from their seven most recent road trips, as well as 4-5 ATS in their last ten games overall.
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Total
The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last 25 games between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills produced an average of 48.2 points.
Going for the Over (-110) might be worth a shot, with the total currently set at 44.5 points, as the total average points from the previous five meetings between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills was 46.8 points.
The total has averaged 41.4 points in the New England Patriots’ ten most recent games, as well as 36.2 points in their last five at home. Interestedly, the total has gone under in six of the home team’s past ten divisional matchups against teams from the AFC East.
As for the Buffalo Bills, the average total has been 46.7 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 43.4 points in the last five on the road. Going on the road doesn’t always seem to produce the expected number of points for the away team, as the total has gone under in six of the past ten matchups matches away from home.
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills Betting trends
- Buffalo Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
- Buffalo Bills’ points total went under in their last seven road games
NFL Power Rankings Week 13 2022, New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots Form
The New England Patriots are 6-5 for the season and their latest match against the Minnesota Vikings ended in a 33-26 defeat, leaving them 6-4 across their past 10 games and 3-2 in the last five at home.
It’s been a rough few weeks for the home offense in terms of points scored. In the last five matches, the New England Patriots have only put up 19.6 points on average which is way below their season average of 21.7 points. Surrendering 18.4 points per game leaves their defense around the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league’s defensive units.
Despite being one of the pre-tournament playoff favorites, the New England Patriots got a fight on their hands. They’re only 6-5 this year, and unless things pick up soon, even a postseason berth will be out of their reach.
Buffalo Bills Form
The Buffalo Bills improved to 8-3 for the season in Week 12 by beating the Detroit Lions 25-28 for a second straight win. They are 4-2 on the road, but 0-2 in AFC East matchups.
The offense has performed to its usual standards of late, putting up 26.6 points in the last five matches, which is on par with the 28.1 points average the Buffalo Bills have achieved for this season. As for the defense, the visitors have given up 23.6 points across the previous five outings. Considering the defensive unit has only allowed 18.1 points for the season itself, it’s fair to say the defensive unit has not performed to its usual standards of late.
As the reigning AFC East champions, a successful title defense is a priority for the Buffalo Bills right now. By doing so, they’ll seal a playoff spot and a more favorable tie at home.
New England Patriots VS Buffalo Bills H2H history
The previous matchup between these two franchises ended in a 47-17 win for the Buffalo Bills at the Highmark Stadium in January 2022. In 14 of the past 25 meetings between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills the total went over 44.5 points.
The New England Patriots tallied 27.04 points on average per game from their 25 most recent head-to-head games against the Buffalo Bills. The latter managed an average of 21.16 points in comparison.
The odds and predictions are perfect to start the Ohio sports betting market going live on Jan 1.